Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.184213 20.827759 22.637930 24.797509 27.328242 30.231530 33.861680
2024-12-22 16.552673 18.687446 21.207362 24.464017 28.661390 34.044789 41.761948
2024-12-29 14.808820 17.193339 20.155133 24.228130 29.908328 37.959745 51.181211
2025-01-05 13.564655 16.089917 19.353820 24.075438 31.122470 42.077523 62.747030
2025-01-12 12.481524 15.038450 18.442198 23.561098 31.628131 45.196308 74.370113
2025-01-19 12.050544 14.782551 18.546695 24.478762 34.490085 53.210296 102.272297
2025-01-26 11.376343 14.118053 17.981389 24.264290 35.389139 57.908900 127.811315
2025-02-02 10.875661 13.646213 17.635417 24.326853 36.768684 64.206581 169.213349
2025-02-09 10.473451 13.277419 17.397807 24.518626 38.421267 72.003495 239.368241
2025-02-16 10.088253 12.901169 17.107399 24.568576 39.792337 79.932490 353.565564
2025-02-23 9.677484 12.457579 16.670166 24.294714 40.406688 86.139438 521.482851
2025-03-02 9.363312 12.137974 16.402503 24.292366 41.631474 95.337428 975.359921
2025-03-09 9.025204 11.767373 16.031844 24.068486 42.337340 103.629684 2357.215811
2025-03-16 8.711977 11.418376 15.672477 23.826906 42.963515 112.493791 22055.542710
2025-03-23 8.433095 11.107979 15.355875 23.633741 43.684055 122.906715 NaN
2025-03-30 8.186659 10.835666 15.084840 23.501303 44.549904 135.574770 NaN
2025-04-06 7.900691 10.487544 14.662128 23.013191 44.315885 142.035076 NaN
2025-04-13 7.850438 10.511247 14.883500 23.897466 48.360760 185.770820 NaN
2025-04-20 7.639419 10.265490 14.613409 23.692647 49.011613 206.040667 NaN
2025-04-27 7.480237 10.096868 14.470533 23.753256 50.569552 241.944868 NaN
2025-05-04 7.347791 9.965878 14.386917 23.937681 52.637976 296.837061 NaN
2025-05-11 7.204854 9.811297 14.250550 23.985750 54.262755 360.842431 NaN
2025-05-18 7.030114 9.597135 13.992564 23.722743 54.655793 409.227425 NaN